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“China will be the one to watch in 2023. I think we’ll all be watching with bated breath,” he said.
The surge in domestic tourism had provided some consolation to the Queensland industry this year, he said.
“They’ve rekindled their love of Cairns and the Great Barrier Reef, and that’s really comforting to us,” he said.
“We’re cautiously optimistic that domestic [visitors] will continue to choose Cairns and the Great Barrier Reef through ’23 and ’24, and then we’ve got to see the international comeback.”
While huge numbers of domestic travellers have visited the tropical north of the country, Olsen said many operators rely heavily on the international tourist market.
“For some businesses, particularly some big reef operators, they were 80 per cent international and 20 per cent domestic,” he said.
In inflation-adjusted terms, international tourists spent $13.5 billion this year, compared to $34.5 billion before the pandemic. That spending is forecast to rise back to pre-pandemic levels by 2025.
The amount spent on domestic trips has already overtaken 2019 figures, and the number of overnight stays is near pre-pandemic levels.
Tourism and Trade Minister Don Farrell said tourism was a major employer and export earner for the country and the government was committed to supporting the industry.
“I have been delighted to see Australians getting out and about around our country this year, and I look forward to our tourism and travel businesses welcoming more international visitors in coming years,” he said.
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International visitor numbers hit a peak of nearly 9.5 million in 2019. When COVID hit in early 2020, and the international border shut soon after, those numbers dwindled to just 246 arrivals in 2021.
The forecasts come after a dire period for Australian tourism. The near two-year closure of the international border meant international travel was non-existent, while state border closures hampered interstate holidays.
That cost Australia $153.6 billion in lost tourism expenditure from March 2020 to June this year, the report found, including $84.8 billion lost from international travel, $50.5 from overnight domestic holidays and $18.3 billion from day trips.
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